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Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Solar Panels - Got a quote - Do I? Or Don't I?

OK...so this afternoon I met up with Greenspring Energy to discuss the idea of putting up solar panels on the roof.  I don't have much area...about 215 sf, by my estimate...so the system would not be large.

Anyhow, so this is the system sizing they came up with:

DC size:  2 kW
 AC/DC de-rating factor:  0.93
AC rating:  1.9 kW
Type of Panel:  Sunpower E20/327 panels
(E20 = 20.1% efficiency; 327W)
# of Panels (@~61.5" x 21.2"):  6

Expected annual output:  3194 kWh (based on PVwatts with an annual average solar rating of 5.07 kWh/m2/day).
Expected annual energy value:  $329 assuming 0.103/kWh
Estimated Price:  $12,262
Subtotal minus 30% federal and 35% state tax credits:  $4,293

Estimated ROI without any increase in dook Energy rates:  13 years
 Estimated ROI with a 5%/yr increase in dook Energy rates:  10.5 years

If I do the buy-all sell-all option, the ROI ends up being the same even at the higher $0.15/kWh due to the increase dook Energy monthly "facilities charge" of $16 vs the current $9/month.  Leave it to dook energy to spoil all the fun.  So, net metering would probably be the best option.

The system would produce roughly 28% of my annual power usage:

Feb 2011 - Feb 2012:  11,470 kWh or 947 kWh/month
Solar PV as % of Household usage:  3194/11470 = 27.8%

On some months the PV would account to roughly 54% of my usage (May-June) while during January it would only be 17% of my bill.

Overall...I'm not too thrilled about their ROI.  Having an ROI of 10-13 years is too high.  Plus, I know I won't get my state tax credits until at least 2014 because the State still owes me the second half of my geothermal tax credit.

What's interesting is that when I use the solar-estimator.org site, I get a 6 yr ROI.  I notice that the solar calculator includes the Duke Energy RECs ($82/yr) and the NC Greenpower incentive ($264/yr)....both of which are not included in Greenspring Energy's calculations.  The solar estimator also only has a 3.78% dook energy annaul inflation rate vs their 5%.   The ROI goes to 7 years if I set the inflation rate to zero and then set the electricity rate to 0.0929/kWh.  While it's not 1-2 years (like my latest mortgage Refinance)...6-7 years is still a pretty good ROI.

So...what do y'all think?  My gut says I should at least wait until Fall 2013 for the tax credits...that's assuming the tax credits survive the upcoming election...to minimize the amount of time I have to wait for the tax credit return.

Also...solar technology is evolving quickly.  New multi-junction concentrated solar panels are achieving 30-40% efficiencies: http://cleantechnica.com/2011/02/17/high-efficiency-solar-cells-getting-more-efficient-cheaper/

Who knows...in a year these bad-boys could be selling thus allowing me to get even more power from my small roof area (yes...most likely at a premium price...but if the ROI is right...)

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